← Grand Archive TCG Store Championship
Water AlliesTier 2
at Grand Archive TCG Store Championship
decks
1
(3.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
7-0-1
overall winrate
93.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
56.8%
avg ELO +3.3 per match
expected value
62.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1315
· median 1315
· range 1315–1315
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
941
Q1 1133
Q3 1375
1472
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 24.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.8% | +4.5 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 13.8% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 57.1% | +5.3 |
| Wind Allies | 13.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.2% | +6.7 |
| Wind Razorgale | 10.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 6.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.4% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 48.0% | -1.9 |
| Wind Kongming | 3.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.9% | +3.0 |
| Wind Silvie | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Allies decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
